This is a page for a single series forecast. There is a lot going on in this page, so let’s go through what everything means.
On this page we have 4 main sections –
The top panel shows the eSport being played, two teams that are facing off, their model rating, and the model’s probability of win for each team to take the first map. It also indicates if the series is a Best of 1, 3, etc.
This panel also shows the event that is taking place in the top right – you can click this to bring up all series from that event.
The series will automatically update with the results, when available. However, there will be a couple minutes delay for the results to load into your program. You can update the winner for each map manually by pressing the green check marks next to each team.
You can double click the Event Title, or either one of the Team logos to get more information about that event or team.
The map details panel will show you different information, depending on which eSport is being played. The content is determined based on if the eSport has Hero picks, or Map picks.
For Dota 2 and League of Legends, the most important feature is the hero selection. If the heroes have not yet been drafted, then the model shows the top 5 heroes that make a largest impact, when picked by the respective team. If the draft has taken place and is loaded into the model, then we will show stats for the heroes chosen.
For each hero we show the number of times it has been played (GP), its overall win rate (Win%), and how often the team picks the hero (Pick%) when it has been left unbanned. Finally, we show an impact column, which is a measure of how much the team over or under performs when this hero is chosen, with respect to model expectations.
For example, if we look at all games where one team has picked Warlock, say the model forecasts our team to win 45% of these matches. In reality, however, say the team ends up winning 56% of these matches (over performing the model). Then the impact for Warlock would be +11% because the team is over performing by 11% when this hero is picked.
For Counterstrike and Overwatch, this panel looks at map picks. We show the total number of games played on each map, and overall win percentage in form of a pie chart (W) – you can hover over top of the pie chart to get more information.
For Counterstrike we also show round win percentages when playing as Counter Terrorists and as Terrorists.
The final column ‘Mdl’ (short for model) is a measure of how much the team over or under performs when this map is picked, with respect to model expectations.
For example, if we look at all games that one team has played on Nuke, say the model forecasts our team to win 45% of these matches. In reality, however, say the team ends up winning 56% of these matches (over performing the model). Then ‘Mdl’ would show +11% because the team is over performing the model by 11% when playing on this map.
The roster panel shows the expected line up to be playing for each team. Each player has their moniker, their number of maps played, overall win percentage, and model rating. You can double click on any player to see their series history. The first column (SI) indicates whether the model is considering the player to be a ‘Stand-in’ or not – this factor will soon be replaced with a measure of team synergy.
If you press the + button at the top of this panel, you’ll open up the roster controls. Here you can modify the roster being used for each team.
Select a player and hit the minus button to remove that player from the roster. To add a new player, select the name from the dropdown, and hit the plus button. This list is automatically filtered to players who have played on this team in the past. If you cannot find the player you are looking for – try pressing the Remove Player Filter button on the bottom status strip, to allow for any player for this eSport to be chosen.
There is a check box to indicate whether you want the added player to be considered as a Stand-in or not.
When you are satisfied with the roster being shown, hit the Save button (disk icon) to save the roster and have the model recalculate the forecast.
You can hit the Clear button for either roster (Broom icon) to revert to the model’s suggested roster for this series.
If the roster is an Implied Roster – this means that the roster is coming from a previous match. You can click ‘Implied Roster’ to see this previous series. If you notice a problem with the roster, it is best to correct the first series with the roster error – subsequent series will automatically update.
If the eSport you are looking at has hero choices, you can select a player, then click the Hero button to add a hero choice for that player. After hitting the Save button, this should then ensure that stats for this hero are shown in the Map Details panel, if the hero has been played before for this team.
The bottom-most panel shows a series of popular bets. The model gives it’s estimation of the probability of each occurring, as well as the Required Odds that it suggests you need in order to bet profitably on that outcome. The required odds column has a built in 5% safety edge.
Some bets are only shown for particular eSports (ie only if they are relevant).
If the series being looked at is a Best of 3 or Best of 5 – the top bet should be a Series bet – ie this is looking at the chances of each team to win the series. For a Best of 2 series – we display the information through handicap bets, and a separate draw bet, as there may be a 1-1 draw.
There will be odds shown for individual maps. Map 1/2 just means that the odds for each of these maps are the same. Map 3 odds are a bit different because it assumes each team wins one of the first two maps.
Handicap bets will have either a +1.5 or -1.5 indicator for each team. What this means is that you add that amount to the teams score to see if they win.
So if you are looking at a +1.5 Handicap bet for a team in a best of 3 series, this means you will add 1.5 to the number of maps they win, and then you determine who wins the series. So this means that your team would win if they take at least one map.
If you are looking at a -1.5 Handicap bet in a best of 3, this means you want your team to win 2:0 (must win Map 1 and Map 2).
For Best of 2s, it is industry practice to display this as +0.5 and -0.5, where the first means that you want your team to take at least one map, and the second means you want your team to win 2:0.
Finally you will see an over/under map bet for best of 3s, or a Series Draw bet for best of 2s.
Status Strip – Additional Functionality
- Question Mark – Help – brings you to this page
- Refresh Button – Reloads the series, directly from its original source (normally GosuGamers right now)
- GosuGamers Button – Bring up the series on GosuGamers website (great to go quickly to the stream)
- Photo Button – Save a screenshot to the screenshots folder (there is a shortcut to get to this folder under File on the Main Screen)
- Trash Button – Delete the series
- Remove Filter Button – This removes the player filter for rosters, so that you can select from all players in this eSport for roster updates.