Improved Counterstrike Rating System

We’ve made some recent changes to our Counterstrike model to improve the way that ratings are updated. We are now accounting for the final score of each map to update each team’s rating, instead of simply looking at which team won and which team lost.

Note that when one team gains rating, their opponent loses the same amount of rating. This still applies in our new and improved rating system.

Under the new rating system, a team will gain more rating when they win by a higher margin – ie a 16-2 win will give a larger rating boost than a 16-12 win. In contrast, our old model would treat both of these wins equally. It makes sense to account for margin of win because the margin of win, on average, is indicative of the level of skill disparity between the teams. As such, factoring this into our rating system will give us more accurate and predictive ratings.

Note that there is still a jump that occurs when the winner changes from one team to the other. This is important, because although margin of victory can tell us something about the skill difference between teams, ultimately the most important predictive factor is the winner of the game. However, with the new system, there is proportionally less weight given to the match winner.

An interesting feature of the new system is that if an underdog puts up a strong performance against a much stronger team – but still loses – they will still gain rating (and conversely, the favorite loses rating). This makes sense, because the underdog exceeded expectations. We see this behavior reflected in the betting markets – and we now account for this in our model.

We can see here that if a 75% favorite wins 16-13, this will actually result in a small rating loss for the favorite, and a small rating gain for the underdog. In contrast, the old model would have given a rating increase to the favorite, which is counterproductive given their below-expectation performance.

In calibration, we are seeing that these changes give our model greater predictive ability. The changes are live in our online model and there are more improvements on the way. Feel free to swing by our discord if you’d like to discuss model features or chat with other esports enthusiasts and bettors.

ESL One Katowice Breakdown and Futures

Hey all –

Trying something new here, going to do a breakdown of Dota 2’s ESL One Katowice as the Major is starting shortly.

This is a $1 million prize pool LAN run out of Katowice, Poland.

There are 16 teams which start in a double-elimination group stage. This will run from Feb 20-23 – teams must finish top 3 in their group to advance to the playoffs.

Playoffs run from Feb 23-25 and are single elimination. The first stage of groups are Bo1s, all other series in groups and playoffs are Bo3, except for the grand finals which will be a Bo5 series. If you finish top in your group, then you advance directly to the semi-finals in the playoffs.

Our model rates Team Liquid as the strongest team in the field, but there are many strong teams here capable of winning the tournament.

Group A

Lets have a look at group A – keep in mind that only three teams are going to make it out of this group. In this group our model rates Team Secret, Newbee, LGD, and Evil Geniuses the strongest. We see Newbee on their own in the bottom half of the bracket, which could give them a relatively easy path to qualify for the playoffs.

With Secret, LGD, and EG all in the top half of the bracket, we’d guess that Secret will find a way through, and likely the winner of LGD / EG in their first series will be the third qualifier.

Group B

In group B we rate Team Liquid and OG as the decisive #1 and #2 teams. Virtus Pro, Mineski, Complexity, and Vici Gaming are all similarly rated.

It seems likely that Liquid and OG will both qualify, but assuming they both win their first series, they will face each other in round two, so one of them will have to do it from the loser’s bracket. Virtus Pro seems to have the easiest path in the bottom half of the bracket, so they are fairly likely to qualify for the playoffs.

Futures Bets

Taking a look at the Winner market (on Pinnacle) we feel most strongly that there is value on Newbee at these odds – they have a decent shot to finish first in their group, giving them a decent advantage in the playoffs.

We’re going with a small bet on OG as well as we have them highly rated, but are concerned about them having to face Team Liquid relatively early.

Hero Futures

Let’s take a look at hero pick/ban percentages among highly rated teams since the last relevant patch to see if there is any value on hero futures – I have 387 maps worth of data.

Pinnacle offers a variety of head-to-head combined pick & ban futures – the hero with highest combined picks and bans through the tournament will win the bet.

Using my stats here and accounting for the odds I’m seeing, I’ve decided to go with the following futures bets –

  • 1u Sand King (60%) > Bane (44%) @ 1.709
  • 1u Terrorblade (56%) > Clockwerk (39%) @ 1.98
  • 0.5u Outworld Devourer (54%) > Enchantress (43%) @ 1.909

Round 1 Forecasts and Bets

Just using our model to place value bets for the first round of matches, we’re seeing value as follows –

  • 0.5u Complexity over Mineski @ 2.389
  • 0.3u EG over LGD @ 2.35
  • 0.3u Fnatic over Na’Vi @ 1.729
  • 0.5u Optic over Virtus Pro @ 4.12

Tail any bets above at your own risk.

Let me know what you think of this write up, and if you’d like to see more like this in the future.

Feel free to swing by our Discord if you want to chat with other fans or discuss betting opportunities. Enjoy the tournament!

ESportsForecasts Web Model Now Available

Hi all –

We’re happy to announce that we now have a web-based version of our model available! We’ve added many new features that I think you will find very useful in making your own eSports predictions.

The web model is still in rapid development, so you will likely see new features being added every day! If you have suggestions or questions, please swing by our discord.

The model will be free to use as we continue to develop the system. Early in the new year, we plan to provide a free demo version of the model, and offer the full model available by subscription.

The program version of the model is soon to be discontinued. Many users experience issues with this program, which is one reason why we have moved to the web-based model in the first place.

Good luck out there!

sixf0ur

Free / Open Model Period Ending Sep 29

Hi all –

I’m sure many will not be pleased with this post.

The model will no longer be available for free download starting Sep 29. I’ve decided to close access to the model for several reasons, which I will explain.

I’m not getting any signups through the affiliate ads, so the ‘free business model’ has failed. This gives me pretty little incentive to provide the model for free.

My main income right now comes from profitable esports betting. I’m starting to see lines move more quickly, and it feels like I am betting against my own model at times. I feel that having my model in other bettors’ hands is starting to affect my own profitability.

Some bookmakers are bad at opening Dota 2 lines, and since this is how I make money right now, I don’t want to put a tool like this into their hands for free.

I will be pursuing other ideas for monetizing the model, but will be closing access to the model in the meantime. The program will stop working on Sep 29, 2016.

Thank you for your support and I hope that you were able to make some profit using this model while it was available. I will still have a need for alpha testers, please contact me directly via email (m3shea@gmail.com) if you are interested.

I will continue to post model forecasts from time to time on the /r/dota2betting subreddit. Hope to see you there (please comment and upvote)!

Necessary Upgrade – Alpha v1.08 Released!

Hi all – here you can find the latest version of the eSports Forecaster! I’m working hard to get the start up time down.

Please consider signing up with one of our affiliated bookmakers using the links inside the program to further support the program’s development!

ESportsForecaster v1.08 (alpha) (24 MB) (5785 downloads)

 

mirror (tinyupload)

upcoming-series

ESportsForecaster v1.08 (alpha) w .NET 4.5 (72 MB) (6701 downloads)

 

Thanks for your support, and good luck!

Alpha v1.06 Released!

Releasing a new version of the model – hope you all like it!

Kaipi vs Fantastic Five

ESportsForecaster - Alpha (24 MB) (4699 downloads)

 

  • Significant Improvement to Series View
  • Recording Wins should work for Created Series
  • Improvement to Roster Updates
  • Team Logos and Player Photos added
  • Updated Colour Scheme

playerview

ESportsForecaster - Alpha (24 MB) (4699 downloads)

 

ESportsForecaster - Alpha - with .NET 4.5 (72 MB) (572 downloads)

 

Please leave feedback, and report bugs, thanks!

Alpha v1.05 Released!

Hi all – I’ve released a new alpha version which is more stable and fixes several bugs.

ESportsForecaster - Alpha (24 MB) (4699 downloads)

 

Roster changes should update better with this version. Please hit the ‘Lock’ button after you are done making changes to rosters for the model to save the new roster and recalculate.lock rosters

I’ve also added a Teams page so you can see the models ratings of each team, and so that you can search for teams.teams

Double-click a team to bring up their recent history and upcoming series.EHOME - Series History

 

ESportsForecaster - Alpha (24 MB) (4699 downloads)

 

ESportsForecaster - Alpha - with .NET 4.5 (72 MB) (572 downloads)

 

Try it out and please leave feedback, thanks!

Good luck all!